The shipping industry may not be able to solve excess capacity until 28 years

According to the latest Sea Intelligence report, the market is entering a traditional downward cycle as there will be a large amount of overcapacity in 2023, and the same situation is likely to occur in 2024.According to the Danish maritime data analysis company, the question remains when the current and overcoming overcapacity market can be rebalanced. In their latest report, analysts have reasonably defined the most positive scenarios from the perspective of operators, as follows:Starting from 2024, the annual growth rate of container volume is 3.8%, which is comparable to the average growth rate after the financial crisis and before the 2011-2019 pandemicBased on current orders, supply growth from 2023 to 2026The supply growth after 2026 is only 1.3%, which is equivalent to the lowest level in the past 10 years (2016).A ‘structural factor’ – that is, how much faster supply can grow than demand while the market remains balanced – is 2.2 percentage points.

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