The shipping industry is in crisis: the two most important shipping routes in the world are paralyzed, one due to the climate crisis and the other due to the war crisis.On one side is the Panama Canal, which is restricted by drought for ships, while on the other side is the armed attack by Hu é on ships passing through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal. The two major shipping routes are obstructed, and a large amount of goods face the risk of delay and increased fuel costs, which has brought serious impact to the global shipping industry; At the same time, it will also lead to a surge in freight rates, causing a blow to global trade.14. On the 15th, for two consecutive days, multiple container ships from Maersk, Herbrot, and MSC Mediterranean were attacked by Hussery armed forces in the Red Sea!On Friday, Maersk and Herbert announced the suspension of navigation through the Mand Strait, and just now, MSC and Daffy also announced the suspension of navigation through the Red Sea. MSC stated that in order to ensure the safety of seafarers and vessels, MSC vessels will not pass through the Suez Canal until the safety of the Red Sea route. Currently, some vessels on the route will be diverted through the Cape of Good Hope.sea freightThe Strait of Mandate is located at the junction of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. If the Suez Canal is the most critical waterway in the world, then the Strait of Mandate is the gateway to this waterwayThe worsening Red Sea conflict through Suez, coupled with restrictions on shipping in Panama, will be a “catastrophic blow” to global shipping.Destine Ozuygur, head of operations at eeSea, a Danish maritime data analysis agency, said that as more and more vessels on the route avoid these two important waterways, the carrier’s proposed loop route diversion is expanding.”Due to the lack of signs of easing restrictions on the Panama Canal and the lack of signs of easing in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, it is expected that the traffic volume through the Cape of Good Hope on both Trans Pacific and Eurasian trade routes will significantly increase in the coming weeks,” Ozuygur stated.Currently, the number of ships willing to wait for strict restrictions on the Panama Canal has significantly decreased in recent weeks. The drought has forced the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) to reduce the number of navigable vessels, resulting in a large number of vessels passing through other longer routes. This situation is now about to occur on a large scale in the Suez Canal.According to eeSea data, 43 container ships will be diverted from the Panama Canal in the next few weeks, of which 9 are confirmed to pass through the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal.In addition, 22 container ships are planning to change their regular routes and bypass the Suez Canal.Ozuygur said, “If we add the 9 ships that originally passed through the Suez Canal but now choose to divert through the Cape of Good Hope, the total number will reach 31.”According to a carrier contact, the operating department of ocean freight carriers is accustomed to planning their routes in advance, and adjustments are only needed due to adverse weather and port congestion. They are currently in an “unstable state”, and route choices are “constantly changing every hour.”.”Sometimes it is highly uncertain whether the captain knows where the ship is going,” the contact person added. “This also means that the estimated time of arrival (ETA) will constantly change, and of course, there may be delays in the customer’s supply chain.”For example, a ship sailing from China to Rotterdam, if it does not pass through the Suez Canal but instead follows the Cape of Hope route, will increase its voyage by about 3500 nautical miles. Based on an average speed of 17 knots, the arrival time at the Dutch port will be extended by about 9 days, consuming an additional 1000 tons of fuel during this process.At the same time, the decision of the THE Alliance to divert its three Asia US East Ring Roads to the Suez Canal is under continuous review.On December 6th, Herbert announced that due to a further reduction in the daily traffic allowed through the Panama Canal in January, the company had decided to change the routes for these services to pass through the Suez Canal.However, several commercial ships have been continuously attacked recently, and the Housai armed forces have clearly stated that any ship is a target of attack. They have begun indiscriminate attacks on commercial ships in an attempt to prevent global trade from passing through the Strait of Mandela. This poses great danger to the Red Sea shipping industry, prompting members of the THE alliance to re-examine this decision.In fact, in the 2024 new service network adjustment released by THE Alliance on the 13th, shipping companies pointed out that their Asia US Eastern route across the Pacific will be “affected by the opening of the Panama Canal.”.
